Vietnam's private capital market in the context of drastic changes in 2026

2026 can be considered one of the pivotal years of Vietnam's economy. While many economies around the world are still facing uncertainties from geopolitical conflicts, trade protectionism, prolonged high interest rates and global supply chain restructuring, Vietnam has entered a new stage of development with high growth ambitions far-reaching institutional reforms and the goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045.

In this context, 2026 is not merely a recovery year for the private capital market but can be the starting point for a new growth cycle.

It is worth noting that changes are taking place not only in the real economic sector but also in the financial sector and capital markets. If in the past, the banking system played an almost absolute role in providing capital for the economy, now, development requirements are posing the need to build a more balanced financial structure, in which the capital market and especially the private capital market must play an increasingly large role.

The Vietnam Innovation & Private Capital Report 2026[1] shows that Vietnam's total annual investment demand is forecast to increase from about 160 billion US dollars today to about 270 billion US dollars by 2030 and may reach 500 billion US dollars by 2045. Meanwhile, bank credit has now exceeded 140% of GDP, among the highest in Southeast Asia, leaving little room for credit expansion. This creates a huge capital gap that non-bank capital mobilization channels, including public capital markets and private capital markets, must participate in filling.

In this context, 2026 is not merely a recovery year for the private capital market but can be the starting point for a new growth cycle.

The strong return of private capital inflows

After a prolonged adjustment period from 2022 to 2024 due to the impact of rising global interest rates, difficult divestment activities and cautious investor sentiment, Vietnam's private capital market has recorded a significant recovery in 2025.

According to data from NIC[2] and VPCA,[3] the total value of private capital investment in Vietnam in 2025 will reach about 4.5 billion US dollars through 149 deals, the highest level in recent years. In which, private equity (PE) reached nearly 4 billion US dollars, setting a new market record. Venture capital (VC) reached about 509 million US dollars, up 28% compared to the previous year.

This figure is especially significant in the context that global investment flows have not yet fully recovered. That shows that Vietnam is emerging as an attractive destination thanks to three important factors.

The first is a high and stable economic growth rate. Vietnam continues to maintain its position as one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia.

The second is that the global supply chain shift is continuing. Many multinational corporations choose Vietnam as a new manufacturing center in their strategy to diversify investment locations.

The third is the increasingly clear prospect of institutional reform, helping to reduce long-term risks for investors.

More notably, the number of international investors participating in PE deals in Vietnam in 2025 has more than doubled, to the highest level in nearly a decade[4]. Investment funds from the US and Europe came back strongly after a long observation period. This reflects a change in the way international investors view the Vietnamese market.

Impact of institutional reforms in 2026

One of the most important drivers of the private capital market in 2026 lies not in the investment funds themselves, but in the ongoing reforms in the capital market in general.

Over the past few years, Vietnam has made a series of fundamental changes such as operating the KRX trading system, shortening the time from IPO to listing, removing the upfront deposit requirement for foreign investors, strengthening corporate governance standards, and preparing to apply IFRS to many enterprises from 2026.     
For private equity funds, these changes are especially important because they directly impact the issue that funds are most concerned about: the divestment mechanism.

For many years, one of the biggest limitations of Vietnam's PE and VC market has been the lack of effective divestment channels. Resale deals to strategic investors or IPOs often take a long time and encounter many procedural obstacles.

However, 2026 is expected to mark a significant change. BCG's report forecasts that Vietnam's IPO market could record a scale of 3-5 billion US dollars in the period 2026-2027, the highest level in nearly a decade. The list of potential IPO businesses is increasingly diverse, from financial technology, consumer, retail to financial services.

A more vibrant IPO market means that PE and VC funds have more options to realize investment returns. This is the factor that can trigger a new capital rotation in the private investment ecosystem.

Artificial intelligence and technology become the focus

If you look at the investment structure in recent years, it can be noticed that there is a significant shift in the taste of investment funds. Instead of prioritizing growth models at all costs as in the previous period, investors are now focusing more on businesses that possess core technology, sustainable business models, and the ability to generate clear cash flows. In particular, the field of artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a new bright spot of the market.

According to reports by NIC and VPCA, investment in AI in Vietnam has increased 13 times in the period 2023-2025, reflecting the growing confidence of investment funds in Vietnam's AI technology capacity and human resources. Besides AI, sectors such as healthcare, climate technology, retail, and consumer staples also recorded a significant increase in capital flows.

This is relatively in line with the Government's development orientation in the new period, when high technology, innovation, semiconductor, AI and digital transformation are identified as strategic growth drivers. The consensus between the national policy orientation and the investment strategy of the private sector is creating a favorable environment for the formation of large-scale technology enterprises in the future.

Despite the positive outlook, Vietnam's private capital market still faces many challenges.

International Financial Center and Global Capital Attraction Opportunities

Another notable development in 2026 is Vietnam's official promotion of the International Financial Center (VIFC) model in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang.

While it will take time to evaluate its actual effectiveness, building a financial center with sandboxes, tax incentives, specialized dispute resolution mechanisms, and connectivity to international markets could have a significant impact on the private capital market. For international investment funds, a transparent regulatory environment and access to modern financial instruments are often just as important as macroeconomic factors.

If implemented effectively, VIFC can help Vietnam attract more specialized investment funds in fields such as fintech, climate technology, digital assets, asset management and venture capital. In the long term, this not only brings capital but also entails management knowledge, operational experience and an international network for the Vietnamese business ecosystem.

Challenges still exist

Despite the positive outlook, Vietnam's private capital market still faces many challenges.

The first is that the quality of investment target enterprises is uneven. Many Vietnamese businesses still do not meet the requirements of corporate governance, financial transparency and internal control systems desired by international investment funds.

The second is that the legal framework for private investment activities still has some points to be improved, especially related to the mechanism of divestment, share transactions, cross-border investment and dispute settlement.

The third is the growing competition between countries in the region. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore are all implementing large-scale investment capital attraction programs and attractive preferential policies.

In addition, external factors such as international interest rates, global trade tensions or economic slowdowns in major markets can still affect investment capital flows into Vietnam.

Prospects for a new growth cycle

Overall, 2026 is opening a new stage of development for Vietnam's private capital market. Unlike previous growth cycles that were largely based on economic growth expectations, the current cycle is supported simultaneously by more fundamental factors, including institutional reforms, capital market upgrades, the adoption of international governance standards, and more.  the development of the innovation ecosystem and the huge capital demand of the economy.

As Vietnam aims to become a high-income country by 2045, the need to mobilize and allocate resources efficiently will become one of the most important tasks. In this context, the private capital market is not merely a place to provide capital for businesses, but also a mechanism to help transform innovative ideas into globally competitive enterprises.

The strong recovery of 2025 may be just the beginning. If the current reforms continue to be implemented effectively and consistently, the period 2026-2030 can completely become the strongest growth period of Vietnam's private capital market since its inception. At that time, Vietnam will not only be a destination for international capital flows but also have the opportunity to become one of the important innovation investment centers of Southeast Asia.